6-Month Seasonal Outlook
Long-range severe weather and winter storm outlook for the Red River Valley
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Detailed Analysis
Climate Drivers
Monthly Breakdown
Click on any month for detailed analysis and narrative
Historical Analog Years
Years with similar climate patterns to current conditions
Threat Assessment
Winter Outlook
Blizzard Risk:
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Cold Risk:
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Severe Weather Outlook
Tornado Risk:
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Hail Risk:
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Methodology
This seasonal outlook combines climate teleconnection analysis with AI-powered interpretation:
- Climate indices (ENSO, Arctic Oscillation, PNA, NAO) from NOAA CPC
- 25 years of verified NOAA Storm Events data (2000-present)
- Historical analog matching based on climate state similarity
- AI analysis for narrative generation and pattern interpretation
Note: Seasonal outlooks provide probabilistic guidance, not specific forecasts. Always refer to the 7-day outlook for actionable weather information.